The GOP are in serious trouble due to some major tactical errors. One rationale for bringing the terrible Sarah Palin on board is obvious, Senator McCain was simply too liberal for many of the religious right, and their support was crumbling. However, bringing in a sop for the religious right simply drove off the moderates. And that's the real problem.
To explain. Say the vote is approximately McCain 50 : Obama 50 and perhaps 20% of McCain's vote is the religious right (that's 10 of his 50). Then say he loses those votes because of his wildly liberal views. Those votes are lost. Gone. They'll not vote for anyone more liberal than Senator McCain. The count is then McCain 40 : Obama 50. Senator Obama gets a 10 point lead.
Now, say we introduce the Palin factor. Back come your religious right, fervoured up, hoping for a McCain/Palin win, and praying for a swift McCain death (I kid you not!) However, away goes the moderate end of the support, the 20% who stuck with Senator McCain but can't stomach the rantings of the religious right.
So where does that leave Senator McCain? back at 40:50 right? Wrong. The problem for the GOP is that, while the moderate vote is lost to McCain, the votes themselves aren't lost. Unlike the religious right, the moderates still vote - but for Senator Obama! The count is now McCain 40 : Obama 60 - a 20 point spread for the same number of votes lost.
The GOP needs to bring 2 religious right votes for every moderate they loose, and I don't think they can do it.
Stand tall moderates, you vote is worth two religious right votes!