The GOP are in serious trouble due to some major tactical errors. One rationale for bringing the terrible Sarah Palin on board is obvious, Senator McCain was simply too liberal for many of the religious right, and their support was crumbling. However, bringing in a sop for the religious right simply drove off the moderates. And that's the real problem.
To explain. Say the vote is approximately McCain 50 : Obama 50 and perhaps 20% of McCain's vote is the religious right (that's 10 of his 50). Then say he loses those votes because of his wildly liberal views. Those votes are lost. Gone. They'll not vote for anyone more liberal than Senator McCain. The count is then McCain 40 : Obama 50. Senator Obama gets a 10 point lead.
Now, say we introduce the Palin factor. Back come your religious right, fervoured up, hoping for a McCain/Palin win, and praying for a swift McCain death (I kid you not!) However, away goes the moderate end of the support, the 20% who stuck with Senator McCain but can't stomach the rantings of the religious right.
So where does that leave Senator McCain? back at 40:50 right? Wrong. The problem for the GOP is that, while the moderate vote is lost to McCain, the votes themselves aren't lost. Unlike the religious right, the moderates still vote - but for Senator Obama! The count is now McCain 40 : Obama 60 - a 20 point spread for the same number of votes lost.
The GOP needs to bring 2 religious right votes for every moderate they loose, and I don't think they can do it.
Stand tall moderates, you vote is worth two religious right votes!
The theocrats will not go quietly. I can only hope your 60-40 split is obvious in hindsight on November 5th, but I'm still working the phone banks.
ReplyDeleteI, as a layperson, enjoyed your first post. No matter where one lives, there's usually something interesting right underfoot, even if they are not as spectacular as your precambrian dino-bugs.
Just dropping in from Pharyngula--nice explanation.
ReplyDeleteHey, Bert, is there any way to donate from Canada?
Chris, now's the time to switch over to WordPress, which has more features and is less likely to evaporate your blog for unstated reasons. When I moved Science Notes, all links that I'd embedded in article titles were lost. I still haven't copied all of them over.
I think your reasoning and comments on the Dirty McShame and Appalling Palin team are right on. We live in a very small West Texas town and are the only two registered Democrats. Lately we've been hearing a lot of yelling and disagreement among the mythological Christianist crowd. They seem to be split down the middle. I can tell you one damn thing,if that stupid machine flips my vote you may read about an old West Texas Cowboy who was jailed for killing a voting machine. Would that be considered 'votracide'? Better not, I'd probably end up in Guantanamo never to be heard from again.
ReplyDeleteAn interesting take that I hadn't really thought about. Certainly makes sense.
ReplyDeleteSay the vote is approximately McCain 50 : Obama 50 and perhaps 20% of McCain's vote is the religious right (that's 10 of his 50). Then say he loses those votes because of his wildly liberal views. Those votes are lost. Gone. They'll not vote for anyone more liberal than Senator McCain. The count is then McCain 40 : Obama 50. Senator Obama gets a 10 point lead.
ReplyDeleteMinor correction: If, as you assume, 20% of McCain's supporters drop out of the voter base, then the percentages would not be 40:50, but 44:56, giving Obama an 8 point lead (not 10).
This is as wonderfully simple and clear an analysis of the election as I've heard. Brilliant! I wonder if simple analysis like this could also be applied to some single issues, like abortion, gay marriage, teaching creationism, etc., where the divide seems to be along similar lines. This might be a simple enough analysis for the ignorant religious right folks to comprehend why their positions will never fly nationwide.
ReplyDeleteMaybe then they can focus on the real issues that effect them, like quality of life, stewartship of the planet, economic well being, jobs, health care, education, etc, which would cause most to lean more towards the Dem's.
ReplyDeleteMy hope is that Palin continues to shoot herself and her running mate in the feet, thus driving more voters away from that harrowing pairing. Nice insights--I never thought of it that way.
ReplyDeleteThis is completely off-topic, but since I found no way of actually contacting you directly, I didn't have a choice:
ReplyDeleteI was wondering if you can recommend any good books about paleontology for the complete layman? I'm a biology undergrad and even though this topic really fascinates me, it's secondary to my curriculum, and I'd like to know more.
freidenker85
ReplyDeleteA good general book is Fossils: The Key to the Past by Richard Fortey
Thanks!
ReplyDelete